Predicting malignant potential of solitary pulmonary nodules in patients with COVID-19 infection: a comprehensive analysis of CT imaging and tumor markers

Objective To analyze the value of combining computed tomography (CT) with serum tumor markers in the differential diagnosis of benign and malignant solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs). Methods The case data of 267 patients diagnosed with SPNs in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from March 2020 to January 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. All individuals diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were confirmed via respiratory specimen viral nucleic acid testing. The included cases underwent CT, serum tumor marker testing and pathological examination. The diagnostic efficacy and clinical significance of CT, serum tumor marker testing and a combined test in identifying benign and malignant SPNs were analyzed using pathological histological findings as the gold standard. Finally, a nomogram mathematical model was established to predict the malignant probability of SPNs. Results Of the 267 patients with SPNs, 91 patients were not afflicted with COVID-19, 36 exhibited malignant characteristics, whereas 55 demonstrated benign features. Conversely, within the cohort of 176 COVID-19 patients presenting with SPNs, 62 were identified as having malignant SPNs, and the remaining 114 were diagnosed with benign SPNs. CT scans revealed statistically significant differences between the benign and malignant SPNs groups in terms of CT values (P<0.001), maximum nodule diameter (P<0.001), vascular convergence sign (P<0.001), vacuole sign (P = 0.0007), air bronchogram sign (P = 0.0005), and lobulation sign (P = 0.0005). Malignant SPNs were associated with significantly higher levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and neuron-specific enolase (NSE) compared to benign SPNs (P < 0.05), while no significant difference was found in carbohydrate antigen 125 (CA125) levels (P = 0.054 for non-COVID-19; P = 0.072 for COVID-19). The sensitivity (95.83%), specificity (95.32%), and accuracy (95.51%) of the comprehensive diagnosis combining serum tumor markers and CT were significantly higher than those of CT alone (70.45%, 79.89%, 76.78%) or serum tumor marker testing alone (56.52%, 73.71%, 67.79%) (P < 0.05). A visual nomogram predictive model for malignant pulmonary nodules was constructed. Conclusion Combining CT with testing for CEA, CA125, and NSE levels offers high diagnostic accuracy and sensitivity, enables precise differentiation between benign and malignant nodules, particularly in the context of COVID-19, thereby reducing the risk of unnecessary surgical interventions.