Game Theory-Based Comparison of Disaster Risk Assessment for Two Landfall Typhoons: A Case Study of Jilin Province's Impact

Utilizing the best typhoon track data, district and county scale disaster data in Jilin Province, meteorological data, and geographical data, the combined weighting method of AHP-EWM (Analytic Hierarchy Process-Entropy Weight Method) and game theory is employed to conduct a comprehensive risk analysis and comparison of the disaster risk caused by two typhoons, Maysak and Haishen, in Jilin Province. Game theory enhances precision in evaluation beyond conventional approaches, effectively addressing the shortcomings of both subjective and objective weighting methods. Typhoon Maysak and Typhoon Haishen exhibit analogous tracks. They have successively exerted an impact on Jilin Province, and the phenomenon of overlapping rain areas is a crucial factor in triggering disasters. Typhoon Maysak features stronger wind force and greater hourly rainfall intensity, while Typhoon Haishen has a longer duration of rainfall. Additionally, Typhoon Maysak causes more severe disasters in Jilin Province. With regard to the four dimensions of disaster risk, the analysis of hazards reveals that the areas categorized as high risk and above in relation to the two typhoons are mainly located in the central-southern and eastern regions of Jilin Province. Typhoon Maysak has a slightly higher hazard level. During the exposure assessment, it was determined that the high-risk areas occupied 16% of the gross area of Jilin Province. It is mainly concentrated in three economically developed cities, as well as some large agricultural counties. In the context of vulnerability analysis, regions classified as high risk and above constitute 54% of the overall area. The areas classified as having high vulnerability are predominantly located in Yushu, Nong'an, and Songyuan. From the analysis of emergency response and recovery ability, Changchun has strong typhoon disaster prevention and reduction ability. This is proportional to the local level of economic development. The mountainous areas in the east and the regions to the west are comparatively weak. Finally, the comprehensive typhoon disaster risk zoning indicates that the zoning of the two typhoons is relatively comparable. When it comes to high-risk and above areas, Typhoon Maysak accounts for 38% of the total area, while Typhoon Haishen occupies 47%. The regions with low risk are predominantly found in Changchun, across the majority of Baicheng, and at the intersection of Baishan and Jilin. Upon comparing the disasters induced by two typhoons in Jilin Province, it was observed that the disasters caused by Typhoon Maysak were considerably more severe than those caused by Typhoon Haishen. This finding aligns with the intense wind and heavy rainfall brought by Typhoon Maysak.