Choosing new careers: patterns of occupational change within vocational education and training and fulfillment of career aspirations in Germany

This study investigates occupational changes in the German vocational education and training system among "stopouts," i.e., individuals who terminate their training prematurely and switch to another occupation. We examine whether occupational changes are related to the fulfillment of career aspirations and changes in key occupational characteristics such as gender typing, social status, and task profiles. Utilizing longitudinal data from the German National Educational Panel Study and employing latent class analyses, we scrutinize patterns of change in occupational characteristics across different social categories. Results indicate that the majority of stopouts switch to occupations more aligned with their career aspirations, reflecting individual agency in career development. We identify two types of latent classes of occupational change: one in which characteristics remain more or less consistent with the previous position, reflecting practices of fine-tuning, and another showing notable task profile differences compared to the previous position. The latter primarily concerns medium-educated individuals who face a wider array of career opportunities compared to their lower-educated counterparts. Our findings emphasize the dynamic nature of career decision-making and stress the need for support for individuals undergoing career transitions. Career counselors and practitioners can use these insights to encourage alignment with individual occupational aspirations, address career compromises, and promote exploration based on interests, particularly among individuals with a medium-level education and diverse career options.