Beyond the Battlefield: Nationalism, Geopolitics, and the Perception of Russo-Ukrainian War Conspiracies in Chinese Social Media Discourse

This study investigates conspiracy theories on China's Weibo regarding the Russo-Ukrainian War, with a specific focus on the roles and impacts of different types of accounts (official verified accounts, individual verified accounts, and ordinary personal accounts) in these discussions. Employing structural topic modeling (STM) and qualitative text analysis, the study comprehensively analyzes Weibo posts from March 1, 2022, to October 21, 2023, aiming to unveil the thematic characteristics, construction motives, and their manifestations in the social media context of conspiracy theories. The findings reveal that the content of conspiracy theories primarily revolves around three aspects: conspiracies directly related to the war itself, nationalist narratives, and geopolitical discourse. These themes not only reflect the public's primary narratives of conspiracy theories about the Russo-Ukrainian War but also unveil the motives for constructing and disseminating these theories. Notably, different types of social media accounts display distinct understandings and focal points regarding the nature and themes of conspiracy theories. This study offers a new perspective on the dissemination of conspiracy theories in regulated media environments, with particular attention to the Global South. In these contexts, state-led communication strategies and social media governance contribute to the formation of public discourse.