CMIP6 projected sea surface temperature over the North Indian Ocean

In this study, we have tried to examine the sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 (SSP2) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 (SSP5) in the near future (2020-2059) and in the far future (2060-2099). For this, we have selected 12 important CMIP6 GCMs. From the analysis, it is clearly seen that the entire NIO is getting hotter in the future under all selected emission scenarios. This increase in the SST over the NIO is more under SSP5 than under SSP2 and the difference is almost 3 degrees C. It is also observed that under the considered emission scenarios, the NIO is projected to be warmer in the far future than in the near future. It is also found that under SSP5 in the far future, the AS will be 0.5 degrees C warmer than the BoB. Analysing the external factors influencing the SST, it is observed that except for the wind speed (WS), the projected changes in other factors, such as the net surface heat flux (NSHF) and the cloud cover (CC), are positive and not favourable for the SST rise over the NIO.