Supporting adaptive pathways planning using archetypes for climate adaptation

Adaptive pathways planning supports adaptation under deep uncertainty. The approach has been broadly applied, resulting in the development of multiple methods and tools. As a result, practitioners are not only challenged with the urgent and complex task of adaptation planning but may also have difficulties in selecting adequate methods. With this research, we introduce three adaptive pathways planning archetypes that represent typologies of contexts (e.g. a city or a region) based on Adaptation Awareness and Capacity. We validate them with local coastal adaptation data. The archetype is determined at a specific moment in time, and a context can evolve from one archetype to another over time by further developing Adaptation Awareness and/or Capacity. The archetypes aim to guide practitioners in selecting methods and tools for adaptive pathways planning. For this purpose, a questionnaire is developed for practitioners to position their case within the archetypes. Based on literature and interviews, we provide recommendations of adaptive pathways planning methods and tools for each archetype. We illustrate the approach for Venice, Italy. Our results confirm how each archetype can develop adaptive pathways with fit-for-purpose methods and tools. Considering the recently started 7th IPCC assessment cycle and implementation of the work program on the global goal on adaptation, it is worthwhile to consider how the archetypes presented here may provide adequate tools for meta-assessments of the status of adaptation worldwide.