Global warming and sustainable aquaculture in Türkiye: the case of sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) and gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata)

This study examines the impact of global warming on the sustainable aquaculture production of sea bass and sea bream in T & uuml;rkiye. Using daily sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1982 to 2020 at four selected locations-Antalya Bay, the Black Sea, & Idot;skenderun Bay, and & Idot;zmir-the study identifies significant warming trends. The annual SST increase rates were determined as 0.046 degrees C, 0.08 degrees C, 0.049 degrees C, and 0.053 degrees C, respectively. A notable rise in the number of days with SST values exceeding 30 degrees C was observed, especially in Antalya Bay (1.51 days/year, reaching 53 days in 2020) and & Idot;skenderun Bay (1.86 days/year, reaching 74 days in 2020). Projections for 2040, 2060, and 2080 were conducted using time series analysis with ARIMA models, forecasting increasing SST trends. Under the maximum SST scenario for 2080, the estimated number of days with temperatures above 30 degrees C is expected to reach 170 days in Antalya, 136 days in the Black Sea, 180 days in & Idot;skenderun, and 132 days in & Idot;zmir. However, in the Iskenderun and Antalya Bays of the Mediterranean, which carry the highest potential risk for aquaculture practices, a decrease of approximately 7.15% and 45% in the number of days exceeding 30 degrees C for Iskenderun and Antalya Bays, respectively, can be reasonably expected based on depth-dependent temperature variation rates. The findings highlight the necessity of adaptive strategies for sustainable aquaculture, including species selection, technological advancements, and farm relocation efforts.