The roles of population dynamics theory in the design and assessment of marine reserves

Population dynamics theory has been an integral part of the science of marine reserves since the 1990s. Early models of populations protected in marine reserves were adapted from classic approaches used in fisheries science, such as unstructured surplus production models; these were the subject of a comprehensive review of the field in 2003. Here, we review developments in population dynamics theory and modelling since that time. These developments include (1) a more sophisticated understanding of the relationship between demographic replacement over space and population persistence; (2) the importance of age structure for predicting transient population dynamics, which strongly affect our ability to detect reserve effects empirically; (3) the interplay between population dynamics in reserves and the adjacent fisheries and fisheries management; (4) more sophisticated descriptions of larval dispersal leading to refinements in spatial reserve design; (5) the inclusion of species interactions, such as tightly coupled predator-prey dynamics; and (6) more focus on the role of environmental variability and the potential impacts of global change. More generally, recent developments have built upon the earlier strategic models to produce tactical models that have included important details. In reviewing those recent developments, we discuss how population models are used to make predictions, test hypotheses about mechanisms, and identify important (if uncertain) processes, and the role of models in adaptive management. We close by identifying the ways population models will be necessary to understand how to manage reserves in the face of climate change impacts and suggest several avenues for new investigation.