"Let It Be" or "Nip It in the Bud"? A Study of the Impact of Population Outflow on Economic Growth and High-Quality Economic Development in Forest Areas

被引：0
作者：
Liu, Jiaqi [1 ]
Cao, Yukun [1 ]
Li, Jingye [1 ]
Zhang, Yafang [1 ]
机构：
[1] Northeast Forestry Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Harbin 150040, Peoples R China
来源：
FORESTS | 2025年 / 16卷 / 02期
关键词：
high-quality economic development; forest areas; population outflow; principal component analysis; CHINA; MIGRATION; ECOLOGY; GLOBALIZATION; POVERTY; POLICY;
D O I：
10.3390/f16020235
中图分类号：
S7 [林业];
学科分类号：
0829 ; 0907 ;
摘要：
In the face of the realistic background of population loss, resource constraints and factor constraints, it explores the high-quality development of forest areas, aiming to analyze the impacts of population exodus from forest areas on economic growth and high-quality development. The focus is on China's key state-owned forest areas, especially in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. A set of indicators centered on the concept of green development is constructed and designed to measure the dynamics of high-quality economic development and the impact of population outflow in the three provinces and regions from 2000 to 2022. The study found that (1) Heilongjiang Province excels in high-quality economic development, followed by Jilin Province, while the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region lags behind. During the observation period, the high-quality development trend in the forest areas showed a steady upward trend until 2014 and then began to slow down or even decline. (2) The pulling effect of population mobility on economic growth in forest areas has gradually weakened; nevertheless, the effective agglomeration of labor and capital is still a key factor driving economic growth. (3) Population exodus poses an obstacle to high-quality economic development. Increased population mobility has a negative impact on both economic growth and high-quality development, exacerbating economic fluctuations, and is not conducive to stability and high-quality development. It is worth noting that although the population base plays a fundamental role in economic growth, the direct effect of population on development is not significant. On the contrary, there is a negative correlation between population outflow and high-quality economic development. Based on the findings, strategic recommendations are made with the aim of promoting a shift from a growth model that relies on population numbers to a development model that focuses on the improvement of population quality in forest areas, thereby realizing a fundamental innovation in the economic development model. This study enriches the theory of regional development in forest areas and is of great significance in promoting sustainable development in forest areas.
引用
收藏
页数：24
相关论文
共 72 条
  • [21] Ke S., Qiao D., Zhang X., Feng Q., Changes of China’s forestry and forest products industry over the past 40 years and challenges lying ahead, For. Policy Econ, 123, (2021)
  • [22] Wan S., Ke S., Liang C., How the talent ecosystem of key state-owned forest areas in China empowers forestry scientific and technological talents aggregation, For. Policy Econ, 170, (2025)
  • [23] Luo S., Qiao D., Han X., Song B., Wan Z., Li H., Does a Logging Ban Policy Increase Socio-Ecological Resilience? A Case Study of Key State-Owned Forest Areas in Northeast China, Sustainability, 16, (2024)
  • [24] Sun S., Geng Y., Livelihood resilience and its influencing factors of worker households in the face of state-owned forest areas reform in China, Sustainability, 14, (2022)
  • [25] Zhang X., Ke S., Linkage analysis of the resources, population, and economy in China’s key state-owned forest areas, Sustainability, 12, (2020)
  • [26] Dai L., Zhao W., Shao G., Lewis B., Yu D., Zhou L., Zhou W.-M., The progress and challenges in sustainable forestry development in China, Int. J. Sustain. Dev. World Ecol, 20, pp. 394-403, (2013)
  • [27] Yin R., Forestry and the environment in China: The current situation and strategic choices, World Dev, 26, pp. 2153-2167, (1998)
  • [28] Wang H., He M., Ran N., Xie D., Wang Q., Teng M., Wang P., China’s Key Forestry Ecological Development Programs: Implementation, Environmental Impact and Challenges, Forests, 12, (2021)
  • [29] Liu J., Coomes D.A., Gibson L., Hu G., Liu J., Luo Y., Wu C., Yu M., Forest fragmentation in China and its effect on biodiversity, Biol. Rev, 94, pp. 1636-1657, (2019)
  • [30] Zhang P., Shao G., Zhao G., Le Master D.C., Parker G.R., Dunning J.B., Li Q., China’s forest policy for the 21st century, Science, 288, pp. 2135-2136, (2000)
12345678