Spatio-temporal assessment of landscape ecological risk and its influencing factors in Jiangxi Province, China

Landscape ecological risk (LER) can be assessed according to the combined effect of natural disturbances and anthropogenic activities on ecosystem, which can provide an important basis for promoting ecological civilization. On the basis of landscape patterns, an LER assessment system was developed, and the spatiotemporal change in the LER in Jiangxi Province between 2000 and 2020 was analyzed. The findings revealed that rapid urbanization in Jiangxi Province has altered land use patterns, characterized by notable decreases in forestland and cultivated land, accompanied by a substantial increase in built-up land. Most of Jiangxi Province exhibited low LER values, with notable improvement over the past two decades. The proportion of areas classified as exhibiting extremely high risk and high risk levels decreased from 8.68% to 5.70%, while the proportion of areas classified as exhibiting an extremely low risk level increased from 43.37% to 51.72%. In a significant proportion of areas, the LER decreased, and an area with clear improvement extended outward from Nanchang city. Low LER values were clustered in the mountainous area, while high LER values were clustered in northern Jiangxi. In an investigation of the LER formation mechanism via a geographically weighted regression model, the annual temperature, digital elevation model (DEM) value, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were primarily negatively correlated with the LER in most areas. Conversely, the land use degree was positively correlated with the LER. This research provides insighs for optimizing urban economic growth models and promoting sustainable landscape management in Jiangxi Province.