Analysis and forecast of the coupled development level of socioeconomy ecological environment and tourism in China's Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin holds a crucial strategic position in the national development and socialist modernization agenda and serves as a vital ecological security barrier in China. It is also a significant region for population activities and economic development. Exploring integrated and coordinated development and the spatiotemporal evolution laws of the social economy, ecological environment and tourism industry is in line with China's sustainable development goals and the needs of tourism recovery in the post-pandemic era; it is also highly important for the development of the social economy, ecology and tourism industry in the Yellow River Basin. The basin scope in this paper refers to the natural basin scope demarcated by the Yellow River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources. Seventy-eight prefecture-level cities (prefectures and leagues) are selected as the research scale to construct an evaluation index framework for the development of the social economy, ecology and tourism industry in the Yellow River Basin. With the help of the coupling coordination degree model, the interrelationships and coordinated development among these three systems are explored. Finally, the grey prediction model is used to predict the future trend of this coupling coordination in the Yellow River Basin. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) There are diverse and complex regional characteristics in the coupled and coordinated development of the three major systems in the Yellow River Basin. Overall, this development of the coupling and coordination degree tends to be higher in the west and lower in the east, and the low-value areas and high-value areas continuously spread. (2) From 2010 to 2020, the degree of coupling coordination in the Yellow River Basin showed a downward trend, transitioning from primary coordination to a moderate imbalance, with strong spatial heterogeneity. In 2020, because of the impacts from the pandemic, the vulnerability and instability of the three major systems in resisting external risks were highlighted. (3) From 2026 to 2030, there will be a continuous downward risk for the coupling coordination degree in the Yellow River Basin. Driven by rapid urbanization, the economy, ecology and tourism will most likely remain in a state of barely coordinated development in the short term.