System Dynamics Analysis of Vietnam’s Energy-related Carbon Emissions: Towards a Net Zero Future

Vietnam, a rapidly growing economy with high energy demand, aims for net-zero emissions by 2050. This study employs a system dynamics model to analyze the complex dynamics of energyrelated carbon emissions at the national level. This study utilized historical data from 1990 to 2020 and projections up to 2050 from five shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Sensitivity analysis identifies gross domestic product growth rate, energy intensity, and energy structure as crucial drivers of energy consumption and carbon emissions. Predictions show that energy consumption and emissions peak in the SSP5 scenario, followed by SSP1, SSP2, SSP4, and SSP3. The projected energy consumption and carbon emissions for Vietnam in 2050 are highest under SSP5, reaching 16,536 PJ and 1,001 Mt CO2, respectively. While all scenarios meet the 2030 emission targets, they fail to meet the 2050 targets, with SSP5 requiring the most significant emission reductions. With robust policy interventions, Vietnam may achieve its net-zero emission goal, emphasizing the need to promote energy-efficient sectors and transition to renewable energy sources. Efforts for Vietnam’s energy system to meet the 2050 carbon emission target require increasing the renewable energy share by 20%-28% and reducing the energy intensity of the residential sector by 21–65% and the industrial sector by 21%-50%, depending on the scenarios. © 2024, Aalborg University Press. All rights reserved.