Reassessing the information transmission and pricing influence of Shanghai crude oil futures: A time-varying perspective

The Shanghai crude oil futures market, known as INE, has achieved significant success in trading volume and is increasingly recognized as a nascent crucial oil futures contract. As INE aims to serve as a pivotal global pricing reference, evaluating the dynamic characteristics of its pricing capability is essential for comprehending the evolving market landscape. This study initiates with foundational insights from a time-varying perspective. We uncover the time-varying information transmission of INE within the crude oil futures system and reveal its time- varying predictive causality on crude oil spot prices. The empirical findings yield several significant observations. Firstly, the Shanghai crude oil futures consistently functioned as the net receiver of price information transmission from mainstream international crude oil futures. Secondly, during the initial months of post-INE listing, and amid the global spread of COVID-19, Shanghai crude oil futures displayed less information received. Thirdly, the significant predictive causal influence of INE on the crude oil spot markets is predominantly observed to be valid post-2021, with its predictive capabilities exhibiting an ongoing enhancement. Our findings indicate that INE is gradually solidifying and strengthening its role as an influential player in the global crude oil market as it matures.