Multi-scenario simulation of production-livelihood-ecologicalspace in Urumqi based on PLUS

被引：0

作者：

Zhou, Man-Yi ^{[1
]}

Wang, Cheng-Wu ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] School of Public Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi,830052, China

来源：

Zhongguo Huanjing Kexue/China Environmental Science | 2024年 / 44卷 / 07期

关键词：

Based on the land use data of Urumqi in 2000; 2010; and; 2020; this paper uses PLUS model to select 15 driving factors including social economy and natural environment to simulate the space changes of production-livelihood-ecology in Urumqi in 2030 under four scenarios; development of production; living standard; ecological protection and comprehensive optimization.The results show that from 2000 to 2020; the grassland area continuously decreased; shrinking by 614.06km2. The cultivated land first slightly increased and then significantly decreased; totaling a decrease of 226.39km2 .The area of other land types showed a trend of continuous increase.the change degree of grassland and unused land is the most dramatic. From the results of multi-scenario simulation; in the four scenarios; the living space area shows an expanding trend; and the maximum expansion degree reaches 85.86km2; under the scenarios of development of production and living standard; the area of production space expands by 3.13km2 and 38.17km2 respectively; while the area of ecological space shrinks by 30.11km2 and 124.03km2 respectively; under the scenario of ecological protection and comprehensive optimization; the area of production space shrinking and the maximum shrink degree reaches 149.8km2; the spatial change trend of land use type under the comprehensive optimization scenario is similar to the simulation result of ecological protection scenario; but the difference is that the change trend of the former is relatively moderate. Altogether; the simulation results under the comprehensive optimization scenario are more in line with the requirements of urban development and ecological protection. Urumqi City must seize the opportunity; solve the contradiction between urban development and ecological protection in time; so that it can embark on a sustainable development path. © 2024 Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences. All rights reserved;

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页码：4021 / 4030