Evolution of landscape ecological risk and its response to natural and anthropogenic factors: A case study of ecological conservation area in Beijing.

This study utilized land use/cover data from 1990 to 2020 and established a model for evaluating landscape ecological risks. It explored the spatiotemporal characteristics of landscape ecological risks in the ecological conservation area of Beijing over the past 30 years. Additionally, the study employed a geographic detector model to investigate the roles of natural and anthropogenic factors in driving landscape ecological risks. The results indicate that from 1990 to 2020, the primary land use types in the study area were forests and arable land. There was a trend of increasing forested areas, built-up land, and water bodies, while arable land, grassland, and unused land decreased. The average value of landscape ecological risks continuously decreased, with low and relatively low ecological risk areas increasing by 2124.34, 1247.96km2, respectively. Meanwhile, areas with moderate, relatively high, and high ecological risks decreased by 8.45%, 13.66%, and 8.13%, demonstrating a positive correlation at the spatial scale. In single-factor detection, anthropogenic disturbance, NDVI, and elevation were identified as the main factors driving changes in landscape ecological risks. Results from two-factor interaction detection consistently showed enhanced interactions and nonlinear enhancements, with anthropogenic disturbance interacting with other factors being the primary cause of the evolution of landscape ecological risks. This study reveals the changes in land use patterns and landscape ecological risks in the ecological conservation area of Beijing over the past 30 years. It investigates the driving factors behind the evolution of landscape ecological risks, providing a scientific basis for maintaining ecological stability and promoting green development in Beijing's ecological conservation area. © 2024 Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences. All rights reserved.