Predicting Outcome of Patients With Cerebral Hemorrhage Using a Computed Tomography-Based Interpretable Radiomics Model: A Multicenter Study

Objective The aim of this study was to develop and validate an interpretable and highly generalizable multimodal radiomics model for predicting the prognosis of patients with cerebral hemorrhage. Methods This retrospective study involved 237 patients with cerebral hemorrhage from 3 medical centers, of which a training cohort of 186 patients (medical center 1) was selected and 51 patients from medical center 2 and medical center 3 were used as an external testing cohort. A total of 1762 radiomics features were extracted from nonenhanced computed tomography using Pyradiomics, and the relevant macroscopic imaging features and clinical factors were evaluated by 2 experienced radiologists. A radiomics model was established based on radiomics features using the random forest algorithm, and a radiomics-clinical model was further trained by combining radiomics features, clinical factors, and macroscopic imaging features. The performance of the models was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and calibration curves. Additionally, a novel SHAP (SHAPley Additive exPlanations) method was used to provide quantitative interpretability analysis for the optimal model. Results The radiomics-clinical model demonstrated superior predictive performance overall, with an AUC of 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.95; P < 0.01). Compared with the radiomics model (AUC, 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.94; P < 0.01), there was a 0.03 improvement in AUC. Furthermore, SHAP analysis revealed that the fusion features, rad score and clinical rad score, made significant contributions to the model's decision-making process. Conclusion Both proposed prognostic models for cerebral hemorrhage demonstrated high predictive levels, and the addition of macroscopic imaging features effectively improved the prognostic ability of the radiomics-clinical model. The radiomics-clinical model provides a higher level of predictive performance and model decision-making basis for the risk prognosis of cerebral hemorrhage.