Radiomics and quantitative multi-parametric MRI for predicting uterine fibroid growth

Significance: Uterine fibroids (UFs) can pose a serious health risk to women. UFs are benign tumors that vary in clinical presentation from asymptomatic to causing debilitating symptoms. UF management is limited by our inability to predict UF growth rate and future morbidity. Aim: We aim to develop a predictive model to identify UFs with increased growth rates and possible resultant morbidity. Approach: We retrospectively analyzed 44 expertly outlined UFs from 20 patients who underwent two multi-parametric MR imaging exams as part of a prospective study over an average of 16 months. We identified 44 initial features by extracting quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features plus morphological and textural radiomics features from DCE, T2, and apparent diffusion coefficient sequences. Principal component analysis reduced dimensionality, with the smallest number of components explaining over 97.5% of the variance selected. Employing a leave-one-fibroid-out scheme, a linear discriminant analysis classifier utilized these components to output a growth risk score. Results: The classifier incorporated the first three principal components and achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [0.69; 0.91]), effectively distinguishing UFs growing faster than the median growth rate of 0.93 cm3/year/fibroid from slower-growing ones within the cohort. Time-to-event analysis, dividing the cohort based on the median growth risk score, yielded a hazard ratio of 0.33 [0.15; 0.76], demonstrating potential clinical utility. Conclusion: We developed a promising predictive model utilizing quantitative MRI features and principal component analysis to identify UFs with increased growth rates. Furthermore, the model's discrimination ability supports its potential clinical utility in developing tailored patient and fibroid-specific management once validated on a larger cohort.