Does climate drive the defoliation of European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.)?

Stress on tree vitality is expected to increase due to climatic extremes in European forests. The decline in vitality of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) that has been reported recently, makes it necessary to rethink its future adaptive potential under ongoing climate change. Here we performed a pan European assessment of defoliation chronologies on 414 ICP Forests Level I beech plots, between 1995 and 2022. We investigated the temporal trends, spatial variation, tree-specific patterns as well as climate sensitivity of defoliation at plot level. Various trends emerged and we delineated the plots accordingly: 1) increasing defoliation trends indicating declining vitality (categorized as t1 plots); 2) no trends indicating stable crown condition (t2 plots); 3) decreasing defoliation trends indicating increase in vitality (t3 plots). Spatial variation was found among these plots but no regional grouping or clustering. Tree-specific patterns on 14 % plots were observed, characterized by an expressed population signal of < 0.85, indicating high inter-tree variability. Defoliation was found to be sensitive to climatic variables, mainly to temperature but also precipitation, albeit only for a small percentage of plots. Sensitivity was indicated by statistically significant (p<0.05) Pearson's correlation coefficients. Moreover, this response depended on month of the year. Climate sensitivity of defoliation also varied across space and plots of different trend categories. It also differed along monthly water balance gradient, further indicating the role of site-specific water availability in mediating the responses to climatic variables. Our study provided basis for longterm defoliation studies, and is a crucial building block to assess beech vitality under potentially changing future climate. Furthermore, such studies will provide more insights into changes in sensitivity and adequate future sites for beech.