Multimodel and Multiconstituent Scenario Construction for Future Water Quality

被引：0

作者：

Bouwman, A. F. ^{[1
]}

Baerlund, I. ^{[2
]}

Beusen, A. H. W. ^{[1
,3
]}

Floerke, M. ^{[4
]}

Gramberger, M. ^{[5
]}

Cardona, J. Rivera ^{[4
]}

Podgorski, J. ^{[6
]}

van den Roovaart, J. ^{[7
]}

Grizzetti, B. ^{[8
]}

Janssen, A. B. G. ^{[9
]}

Kumar, R. ^{[10
]}

Langan, S. ^{[11
]}

Poikane, S. ^{[8
]}

Spears, B. M. ^{[12
]}

Strokal, M. ^{[9
]}

Tang, T. ^{[13
,14
]}

Troost, T. A. ^{[7
]}

Vigiak, O. ^{[8
]}

van Vliet, M. T. H. ^{[15
]}

Vystavna, Y. ^{[16
]}

Wang, M. ^{[9
]}

Hofstra, N. ^{[9
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci Geochem, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands

[2] UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Lake Res, D-39114 Magdeburg, Germany

[3] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands

[4] Ruhr Univ Bochum, Inst Engn Hydrol & Water Resources Management, D-44801 Bochum, Germany

[5] Prospex, D-10178 Berlin, Germany

[6] Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Eawag, Dept Water Resources & Drinking Water, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland

[7] Deltares, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands

[8] European Commission, Joint Res Ctr JRC, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy

[9] Wageningen Univ & Res, Earth Syst & Global Change Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands

[10] UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Computat Hydrosyst, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany

[11] CGIAR, Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka

[12] UK Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Edinburgh EH26 0QB, Scotland

[13] King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol, Biol & Environm Sci & Engn Div, Thuwal 239556900, Saudi Arabia

[14] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Biodivers & Nat Resources Program, Water Secur Res Grp, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

[15] Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Fac Geosci, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands

[16] Vienna Int Ctr, Isotope Hydrol Sect, Int Atom Energy Agcy, A-1400 Vienna, Austria

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LETTERS | 2024年 / 11卷 / 12期

关键词：

Anthropogenic chemicals; Arsenic; Biologicaloxygen demand; Fecal coliform; Future; Global; Groundwater; Nitrogen; Scenario; Surface water; Water quality; RIVERS; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1021/acs.estlett.4c00789

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Freshwater pollution is, together with climate change, one of today's most severe and pervasive threats to the global environment. Comprehensive and spatially explicit scenarios covering a wide range of constituents for freshwater quality are currently scarce. In this Global Perspective paper, we propose a novel model-based approach for five water quality constituents relevant for human and ecosystem health (nitrogen, biochemical oxygen demand, anthropogenic chemicals, fecal coliform, and arsenic). To project the driving forces and consequences for emissions and impacts, a set of common data based on the same assumptions was prepared and used in different large-scale water quality models including all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural changes, as well as threshold concentrations to determine the risk for human and ecosystem health. The analysis portrays the strong links among water quality, socio-economic development, and lifestyle. Internal consistency of assumptions and input data is a prerequisite for constructing comparable scenarios using different models to support targeted policy development.

引用

页码：1272 / 1280

页数：9

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