ESTIMATING THE QUALITY OF OCEAN SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS (NORTH ATLANTIC).

Given is a qualitative analysis of the methods used at the Hydrometeorological Center of the USSR for predicting ocean surface water temperature under conditions of the North Atlantic. The effectiveness of the prediction methods is estimated compared with standard predictions. The low effectiveness of the methods is demonstrated. Indicated as a cause of the low effectiveness is the error in determining the initial water temperature field, which has the same order of magnitude as the mean square variability of ocean surface water temperature.