Controlling the risk for an agricultural harvest

被引：64

作者：

Allen, Stuart J. ^{[1
]}

Schuster, Edmund W. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] MIT Auto-ID Labs, Nashua, NH 03062

来源：

Manufacturing and Service Operations Management | 2004年 / 6卷 / 03期

关键词：

Agriculture; Harvest risk;

D O I：

10.1287/msom.1040.0035

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Gathering the harvest represents a complex managerial problem for agricultural cooperatives involved in harvesting and processing operations: balancing the risk of overinvestment with the risk of underproduction. The rate to harvest crops and the corresponding capital investment are critical strategic decisions in situations where poor weather conditions present a risk of crop loss. In this article, we discuss a case study of the Concord grape harvest and develop a mathematical model to control harvest risk. The model involves differentiation of a joint probability distribution that represents risks associated with the length of the harvest season and the size of the crop. This approach is becoming popular as a means of dealing with complex problems involving operational and supply chain risk. Significant cost avoidance, in the millions of dollars, results from practical implementation of the Harvest Model. Using real data, we found that the Harvest Model provides lower-cost solutions in situations involving moderate variability in both the length of season and the crop size as compared to solutions based on imposed risk policies determined by management. © 2004 INFORMS.

引用

页码：225 / 236

页数：11

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