Integrating scenario planning and indicator-based early detection for scenario transfer

被引：0

作者：

Weissenberger-Eibl, Marion A. ^{[1
]}

Joachim, Klemens ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Innovation and Technology Management, University of Kassel, D-34109 Kassel

来源：

International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning | 2008年 / 4卷 / 04期

关键词：

Early detection system; Indicators; Scenario planning; Strategic planning; Weak signals;

D O I：

10.1504/IJTIP.2008.020873

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Traditional early detection systems are not well suited for detecting weak signals especially in highly complex environments. One problem is the fact that indicator based systems fail to deliver a holistic picture about the future. A second problem is the inflexibility in terms of time horizons of leading indicators. Scenarios are well suited to integrate information into holistic pictures on weak signals. While literature about methods of developing scenarios is relatively vast, only few approaches allow the systematic and continuous verification and observation of changes or developments. This paper describes a systematic approach for a scenario-based early detection system. © 2008, Inderscience Publishers.

引用

页码：431 / 444

页数：13

共 31 条

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