Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for decision-making of power grid expansion planning

被引：0

作者：

机构：

[1] College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University

[2] Zhejiang Electric Power Corporation

来源：

Zhou, H. (zhouhao_ee@zju.edu.cn) | 1600年 / Automation of Electric Power Systems Press卷 / 37期

关键词：

Planning decision-making; Power grid planning; Probability model; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty;

D O I：

10.7500/AEPS201205125

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

As more and more uncertainties have emerged in the decision-making of power grid expansion planning, it is necessary to develop new models to analyze the sensitivity of the decision-making results. A series of probabilistic sensitivity analysis models for decision-making of power grid expansion planning is proposed. Considering the uncertainty of criterion values, criterion weights and plan rankings, different models and calculating methods are developed. The impact of criterion values and weights on ranking sequence of candidate plans is quantitatively calculated using the Monte Carlo method. An actual case study is given to demonstrate the rationality and adaptability of the models proposed in coping with uncertain factors in different decision-making environments. © 2013 State Grid Electric Power Research Institute Press.

引用

页码：41 / 46

页数：5

共 18 条

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