Dynamic change of land use in Changhua downstream watershed based on CA-Markov model

被引：0

作者：

Xiao, Ming ^{[1
]}

Wu, Jiqiu ^{[2
]}

Chen, Qiubo ^{[3
]}

Jin, Meijia ^{[2
]}

Hao, Xueying ^{[2
]}

Zhang, Yangjian ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Key Lab. of Ecosyst. Network Observ. and Modeling Inst. of Geographic Sci. and Nat. Resources Res., Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] Key Lab. of Protection and Development Utilization of Tropical Crop Germplasm Resources, Ministry of Education, Environment and Plant Protection Institute of Hainan University

[3] Chinese Academy of Tropical Agriculture Science

来源：

Nongye Gongcheng Xuebao/Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering | 2012年 / 28卷 / 10期

关键词：

Cellular automata; Changhua downstream watershed; Driving factors analysis; Land use; Models; Trend analysis;

D O I：

10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.10.037

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

In order to study land use change trend and find out the series relationships between driving factors, taking the Changhua downstream watershed in Hainan province as the study area, the land use scenario in 2018 was simulated and forecasted on the basis of land use types interpretation of 1998 and 2008, rainfall, slope and range of distance data by means of CA-Markov model. Results showed that the simulation accuracy by this model attained 77.67%, and most area of forest and rivers were transformed into orchards. The change of rivers was in accord with real GDP per capita increasing or decreasing. Most area of forest's transformation occurred in places of real GDP per capita with low level. Area of forest and rivers with population of 200000 to 470000 was mainly transformed. Therefore, protective measures for natural resources and reasonable regional development mode should be taken to reserve natural resources better. This study provides a policy basis for ecological protection and optimization of resources allocation.

引用

页码：231 / 238

页数：7

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