Volatility of wind power sequence and its influence on prediction error based on phase space reconstruction

被引：0

作者：

Yang, Mao ^{[1
]}

Qi, Yue ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Modern Power System Simulation Control & Renewable Energy Technology Jilin Province Key Laboratory, Northeast Dianli University, Jilin, 132012, Jilin Province

来源：

Zhongguo Dianji Gongcheng Xuebao/Proceedings of the Chinese Society of Electrical Engineering | 2015年 / 35卷 / 24期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Phase space reconstruction; Prediction error; Recurrence rate; Volatility; Wind power;

D O I：

10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.24.005

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The accurate prediction of wind power is important to guarantee the security and stability of any power system containing a large contribution from wind energy. To improve the accuracy of predictions of wind power generation, many new prediction methods have emerged. However, the accuracy of wind power prediction is not only related to the prediction methods, but also associated with the volatility of wind power. Regardless of the method adopted, it is not possible to guarantee accurate and error-free prediction. The necessity of the volatility in the wind power sequence was explained. To depict the probability of the occurrence of a new volatility mode, based on phase space reconstruction, a recurrence plot, and the recurrence rate was proposed to qualitatively and quantitatively depict the volatility. The changing rules of the recurrence plot and recurrence rate at different spatial scales were discussed. Based on this, a method to analyze the relationship between the volatility of a wind power sequence and prediction error was established. Finally a fair method for evaluating predictions accuracy was provided based on the recurrence rate. The study further illustrates the effectiveness of the method. © 2015 Chin. Soc. for Elec. Eng.

引用

页码：6304 / 6314

页数：10

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