Wind power fluctuation interval estimation based on beta distribution

被引：9

作者：

Liu, Xingjie ^{[1
]}

Xie, Chunyu ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Electrical Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding

来源：

Dianli Zidonghua Shebei/Electric Power Automation Equipment | 2014年 / 34卷 / 12期

关键词：

Beta distribution; estimation; Forecast error; Interval; Power forecast; Probability distributions; Wind power;

D O I：

10.3969/j.issn.1006-6047.2014.12.005

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Large-scale integration of wind power into grid makes the influence of wind power fluctuation on grid increasing and normally, the wind power forecast for a single and fixed point can not meet the needs of power grid for risk analysis and decision-making. The distribution characteristics of wind power forecast error are studied and it is suggested to segment the power forecast range and fit the skewed frequency distribution of power forecast error by the beta distribution with optimized parameters. According to the most narrow principle of estimation interval, the interval estimation of wind power forecast at a certain confidence level is realized. The historic data of a wind farm are analyzed respectively with the proposed model, normal distribution model and non-optimized beta distribution model, and results verify that, the optimized beta distribution model can more effectively estimate the power forecast interval. ©, 2014, Electric Power Automation Equipment Press. All right reserved.

引用

页码：26 / 30and57

页数：3031

共 18 条

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