Application of the catastrophe progression method in predicting coal and gas outburst

Based on catastrophe theory, we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines. According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts, we built a comprehensive evaluation index system and a coal and gas outburst prediction model. In addition, we performed a standard transformation for each index system; based on the degree the various indices affect the risk of an outburst, to make the data dimensionless. Based on the outburst data from eight mines, we determined catastrophe progression values and verified these values. The results show that: 1) converting multi-dimensional problems into one-dimensional problems using this catastrophe progression method can simplify the steps of predicting coal and gas outbursts; 2) when pre-determined catastrophe progression values are used to predict coal and gas outbursts, the predicting accuracy rate can be as high as 87.5%; 3) the various coal mines have different factors inducing outbursts with varying importance of these factors and 4) the catastrophe progression values, calculated based on these factors, can be used effectively to predict the risk of outbursts in coal mines. © 2009 China University of Mining and Technology.