An integrated geospatial techno-economic multi-scenario mapping assessment of PV-based green hydrogen development opportunities: A vision to support its deployment in Morocco

As part of an energy transition aimed at achieving net-zero emissions and decarbonizing hard-to-debate sectors by the mid-century, an ever-growing interest in Green Hydrogen (GreenH2) and its derivatives are emerging. In response to this momentum, numerous countries have established strategies to develop the GreenH2 segment. Nevertheless, this development implies careful planning to ensure competitive and appealing deployment. Against this background, the present paper sheds light on the potential opportunities for developing the GreenH2 in Morocco, one of the most promising countries for this industry. To this end, a comprehensive assessment has been carried out to identify prospective areas for the hydrogen production based on Photovoltaic (PV) energy, one of today's most widespread renewable energy technologies. This analysis was conducted through a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial modeling approach described as PVH2-MSTEA (PV-based H2 - Multi-Scenarios Techno-Economic Analysis). The latter outlines the selection process, covering land eligibility, technical appraisal, and economic evaluation, which is underpinned by three distinct scenarios. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first to focus on identifying cost-effective sites based on two key economic indicators: Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH2), exploring distinct transportation alternatives. This analysis involves both green electricity transmission from potential sites, and hydrogen export via pipelines or vessels through ports, as part of 2050 cost projections. The methodology devised has been applied to the case of Morocco, indicating that roughly 66% of the territory comprises eligible areas, of which 7.26% are considered excellent sites boasting an average annual technical production exceeding 72 GWh/ year (PV) and 1,260 tons/year (H2), equivalent to a specific yield of approximately 2200 kWh/kWp. Given these high potentials, the country offers considerable opportunities for the development of PV-based GreenH2 projects, particularly as evidenced by the multi-scenario economic analysis. Indeed, across excellent areas, the average LCOH2 for scenarios 0 and 1, as well as those for 2.1 to 2.2, are respectively $1.994/kg, $2.145/kg, $2.424/kg, and $2.822/kg. This study, a pioneering one in Morocco, aims to provide reliable and practical decision-making support to local and overseas stakeholders and investors in screening prospective sites, ensuring consistent deployment of GreenH2 projects.