Prediction of port throughput based on Markov chain-time series analysis

被引：1

作者：

Sun, Zhi-Lin ^{[1
]}

Lu, Ya-Qian ^{[1
]}

Huang, Sai-Hua ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University

来源：

Zhejiang Daxue Xuebao (Gongxue Ban)/Journal of Zhejiang University (Engineering Science) | 2012年 / 46卷 / 07期

关键词：

Fluctuation; Markov chain; Randomicity; Throughput prediction; Time series analysis;

D O I：

10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2012.07.021

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

A novel approach of port throughput scientific forecast was studied by a comparative analyzing between the time series analysis (TSA) and Markov chain method. TSA and the Markov chain were both used to make prediction according to nearly twenty years historical throughput data of Wenzhou port. A composite model, which was made up by TSA and Markov chain, was also applied to make prediction of port throughput, and put Markov chain into a role of calibration mechanism. Results show that prediction accuracy of composite model is significantly improved by 50% than TSA, dramatically improved by 75% than single Markov chain. Markov chain-TSA forecasting model was established based on the results of verifying actual throughput data. The model can both reflect the growth trend and random properties of fluctuations in the time series of port throughput. The model is more in line with the actual throughput of the port changes.

引用

页码：1289 / 1294

页数：5

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