Process-Based Simulation of Spring Flowering and Autumn Leaf Coloration of Main Ornamental Plants in Beijing Botanical Garden

被引：0
作者：
Tang L. [1 ]
Chen X. [1 ]
Qian S. [1 ]
Mo Z. [2 ]
机构：
[1] College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes (MOE), Peking University, Beijing
[2] PLA Troop, 32011, Beijing
来源：
Beijing Daxue Xuebao (Ziran Kexue Ban)/Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis | 2023年 / 59卷 / 04期
关键词：
climate driving; first and 100% leaf coloration; first and 50% flowering; process-based simulation and prediction; timing sequential beauty of urban landscape;
D O I：
10.13209/j.0479-8023.2023.034
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Accurately simulating occurrence dates of spring flowering and autumn leaf coloration of ornamental plants is of significant importance for revealing phenological response of urban vegetation to climate change and predicting the optimum timing for flower and foliage viewing. This study employed the Unified Forcing Model (UniForc) and Unified Chilling Model (UniChill) to fit the first flowering and 50% flowering dates of 20 plant species from 1979 to 2019 in Beijing Botanical Garden, and the Low Temperature and Photoperiod Multiplicative Model (TPM) to fit the first leaf coloration and 100% coloration dates of 10 plant species. The errors of optimum models in simulation and prediction were evaluated. Results show that spring flowering of ornamental plants is mainly driven by forcing temperature during ecodormancy and growth periods, but less restricted by chilling temperature during endodormancy period. First leaf coloration of ornamental plants is mainly driven by the process of leaf senescence induced by daily minimum temperature decrease, and 100% leaf coloration is mainly driven by the process of leaf senescence induced by photoperiod shortening. The average simulated root-mean square errors (RMSE) for first flowering and 50% flowering are 3.7 days and 3.2 days, respectively, and simulated RMSEs for the two spring phenophases show good interspecific synchronization. The average simulated RMSEs for first leaf coloration and 100% leaf coloration are 9.4 days and 5.6 days, respectively, but simulated RMSEs for the two autumn phenophases do not display interspecific synchronization. Simulated RMSEs of flowering dates and leaf coloration dates of various plants correlate significantly and positively with their standard deviation of interannual variations. The simulated and extrapolating RMSEs of optimum spring and autumn process-based models are very close, indicating that the models have high robustness. © 2023 Peking University. All rights reserved.
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页码：649 / 658
页数：9
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