System dynamic scenarios analysis of CO2 emissions of China iron and steel industry

In order to have a clear and quantitative understanding of the CO2 emissions from China's iron and steel sector, and to support policy making in this area, a system dynamics model was built to forecast and analyze the demand, energy consumptions, and CO2 emissions of steel production for the next 20 years under various scenarios. The baseline stimulation shows that due to domestic demand, China's steel production could peak in 2022 at 723 million tons, and its energy consumption could peak in 2013 at 457 million tons of coal equivalent, with the peak CO2 emissions in the same year being about 1.277 billion tons. To mitigate CO2 emissions from this sector, a combination of policy measures should be adopted, and the most effective measure is to encourage sustainable demand and consumption. Improving building quality and utility, that is per capita living area grows slower and buildings last longer, has the best effectiveness in emission reduction. In addition, increasing scrap steel use and improving the energy efficiency technologies are also helpful for CO2 mitigation in the iron and steel industry.