A novel prediction method for rolling contact fatigue damage of the pearlite rail materials based on shakedown limits and rough set theory with cloud model

Evaluation and prediction of wheel-rail rolling contact fatigue (RCF) damage can provide important theoretical guarantees for the service safety of wheels and rails and help make maintenance easier to plan. This study aims to develop a novel method for evaluating and predicting RCF damage of the pearlite rail materials with various initial shear yield strengths (ke). Based on the rough set mathematical theory incorporated within the cloud model of the comprehensive evaluation index (P0/ke*mu t), a novel evaluation and prediction method for RCF damage states of various pearlite rail materials was constructed using the shakedown limits for pearlite rail materials with various initial shear yield strengths. To develop this novel prediction method, different evaluation indices for RCF damage states were designed. A comprehensive certainty approach was introduced to quantitatively analyze the actual measured values of distinct evaluation indices that corresponds to different RCF damage states, wherein the maximum value rule was applied. Moreover, the prediction results were confirmed after further verifying using the actual measured value of the P0/ke*mu t. The results indicated that the predicted results were consistent with the test outcomes. The key feature of this prediction method was that it involved both the intrinsic shear yield strength of evaluated pearlite rail materials and wheel-rail rolling contact variables. On the basis of the two-dimensional classical shakedown map, a three-dimensional shakedown limit diagram for rail materials with varying initial shear yield strengths was further constructed using this novel prediction method. The three-dimensional shakedown limit diagram featured an inclined curved surface. As the initial shear yield strength of the pearlite rail materials increased, the curved surface tilted downward, indicating that an increase in the initial ke value of the pearlite rail materials could result in a lower shakedown limit.