Intensified Drought Threatens Future Food Security in Major Food-Producing Countries

Drought is one of the most severe natural disasters globally, with its frequency and intensity escalating due to climate change, posing significant threats to agricultural production. This is particularly critical in major food-producing regions, where drought profoundly impacts crop yields. Such impacts can trigger food crises in affected regions and disrupt global food trade patterns, thereby posing substantial risks to global food security. Based on historical data, this study examines the yield response characteristics of key crops-maize, rice, soybean, spring wheat, and winter wheat-under drought conditions during their growth cycles, highlighting variations in drought sensitivity among major food-producing countries. The findings reveal that maize and soybean yield in China, the United States, and Brazil are among the most sensitive and severely affected by drought. Furthermore, using precipitation simulation data from CMIP6 climate models, the study evaluates drought trends and associated crop yield risks under different future emission scenarios. Results indicate that under high-emission scenarios, crops face heightened drought risks during their growth cycles, with China and the United States particularly vulnerable to yield reductions. Additionally, employing copula functions, the study analyzes the probability of simultaneous drought occurrences across multiple countries, shedding light on the evolving trends of multicountry drought events in major food-producing regions. These findings provide a scientific basis for assessing global food security risks and offer policy recommendations to address uncertainties in food supply under climate change.