Assessing risk and uncertainty inherent in Chinese highway projects using AHP

被引：185

作者：

Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Concordia University, 1455 De Maisonneuve West, Montreal, H3G 1M7, Canada ^{[1
]}

不详 ^{[2
]}

不详 ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Concordia University, Montreal, H3G 1M7

[2] Department of Construction Engineering and Utilities, Zagazig University, Zagazig

[3] Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH

来源：

Int. J. Proj. Manage. | 2008年 / 4卷 / 408-419期

关键词：

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP); Highway projects; Model; Risk;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.05.012

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The high-risk exposure associated with highway construction projects needs special attention from contractors to analyze and manage their risks. They cannot be eliminated but can be minimized or transferred from one project stakeholder to another. Highway projects carry out higher risk than traditional because they entail high capital outlays and intricate site conditions. Therefore, current research aims at identifying two main risk areas that affect highway projects: company (macro) and project (micro) levels; assessing their effect on risk; and introducing a risk model (R) that facilitate this assessment procedure and prioritize these projects. Four Chinese case studies (projects A, B, C, and D) were selected to implement the designed model (R) and test its results. The R index model is developed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Results show that political risk has the highest average weight of 0.5196; however, financial risk has the second highest average weight of 0.2336 in the macro level (company) areas. On the other hand, in the micro level (project), emerging technology and resource risks have the highest average weight of 0.2492 and 0.2098, respectively. The developed R model is tested, which prove its robustness in risk assessment (93%). It can also be used to sort highway construction projects based upon risk. It is an essential tool to assess the level of risk associated with the highway project under study in the bidding phase in order to take preventive actions. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd and IPMA.

引用

页码：408 / 419

页数：11

共 6 条

[1]

Chapman C., Key points of contention in framing assumptions for risk and uncertainty management, Int J Project Manage, 24, pp. 303-313, (2006)

[2]

Dias A., Ioannou P., Company and project evaluation model for privately promoted infrastructure projects, J Constr Eng Manage, ASCE, 122, 1, pp. 71-82, (1996)

[3]

Saaty TL., The analytic hierarchy process, (1980)

[4]

Wang M., Chou H., Risk allocation and risk handling of highway projects in Taiwan, J Manage Eng, ASCE, 19, 2, pp. 60-68, (2003)

[5]

Zayed TM., Chang LM., Prototype model for build operate transfer (BOT) risk assessment, J Manage Eng, ASCE, 18, 1, pp. 7-16, (2002)

[6]

Zayed TM., Halpin DW., Quantitative assessment for piles productivity factors, J Constr Eng Manage, ASCE, 130, 3, pp. 405-414, (2004)

← 1 →