A factor model with a break in its factor loadings is observationally equivalent to a model without changes in the loadings but with a change in the variance of its factors. This approach effectively transforms a high-dimensional structural change problem into a low-dimensional problem. This paper considers the likelihood ratio (LR) test for a variance change in the estimated factors. The LR test implicitly explores a special feature of the estimated factors: the pre-break and post-break variances can be a singular matrix under the alternative hypothesis, making the LR test diverging faster and thus more powerful than Wald-type tests. The better power property of the LR test is also confirmed by simulations. We also consider mean changes and multiple breaks. We apply this procedure to the factor modeling of the US employment and study the structural change problem using monthly industry-level data.
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Georgetown Univ, Dept Econ, 37th St NW & O St NW, Washington, DC 20007 USAGeorgetown Univ, Dept Econ, 37th St NW & O St NW, Washington, DC 20007 USA
Komunjer, Ivana
Zhu, Yinchu
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Univ Oregon, Lundquist Coll Business, 1208 Univ St, Eugene, OR 97403 USAGeorgetown Univ, Dept Econ, 37th St NW & O St NW, Washington, DC 20007 USA
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Capital Univ Econ & Business, Int Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100070, Peoples R ChinaCapital Univ Econ & Business, Int Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100070, Peoples R China
Li, Kunpeng
Li, Qi
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Texas A&M Univ, Dept Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
CUEB, ISEM, Beijing, Peoples R ChinaCapital Univ Econ & Business, Int Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100070, Peoples R China
Li, Qi
Lu, Lina
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Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Risk & Policy Anal Unit, Dept Supervis Regulat & Credit, 600 Atlantic Ave, Boston, MA 02210 USACapital Univ Econ & Business, Int Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100070, Peoples R China
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Columbia Univ, Dept Econ, 420 West 118 St, New York, NY 10027 USA
Nankai Univ, Sch Finance, Tianjin, Peoples R ChinaColumbia Univ, Dept Econ, 420 West 118 St, New York, NY 10027 USA
Bai, Jushan
Liao, Yuan
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Univ Maryland, Dept Math, College Pk, MD 20742 USAColumbia Univ, Dept Econ, 420 West 118 St, New York, NY 10027 USA