The risk evaluation model for scientific and technological project based on credal network method

被引：0

作者：

Song, Wei ^{[1
]}

Qu, Ying ^{[1
]}

Liu, Ziyu ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Science and Technology, No. 70, Yuhua East Road, Shijiazhuang, China

来源：

ICIC Express Letters | 2015年 / 9卷 / 03期

关键词：

Risk analysis - Graphic methods;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

By analyzing the characteristic of scientific and technological project, risk identification was carried out from the point of view of system structure. The Credal network method was introduced into the risk system analysis of the scientific and technological project. In this model, the success or failure state of the project was looked upon as probability events. By calculating these events’ occurring probabilities, the risk level of project was implied. These probability events express the uncertainty and complexity of the system to some extent. By using the result of the risk identification, the topological structure of risk Credal network is constructed, and then the evaluation and diagnosis has been realized by inferring. Combined with an example, risk evaluating and diagnosing has been demonstrated with enumeration method. The inference result showed the method is valid and available. © 2015, ICIC International.

引用

页码：671 / 676