Uncertain Bass model with application to new energy vehicle sales forecasting

The dissemination of predictive innovation is critical to technological development and engineering management. Given the uncertainty that exists in the real-world scenario, this paper incorporates uncertainty theory into the Bass model to improve product sales forecasts. An uncertain Bass model is developed to consider dynamic market conditions and unpredictable consumer behavior. Applying the sales data of the BYD Song Plus electric vehicle, the effectiveness of the uncertain Bass model in predicting product sales is verified. In addition, the model calculates the first hitting time, further demonstrating its practicality.