Novel method for predicting SPE flux levels based on GM(1, 1) model and grey interval predictions

被引：0
作者：
机构：
[1] Key Laboratory of Precision Opto-Mechatronics Technology of the Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing
来源：
Wang, Zhongyu | 1600年 / Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (BUAA)卷 / 40期
关键词：
GM(1; 1); Grey interval predictions; Prediction; Solar proton events (SPE); SPE flux levels;
D O I：
10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2013.0540
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Solar proton event (SPE) is the main source interfering with solar-terrestrial space, large proton event could affect the reliability of on-orbit space station experimental facilities, and sometimes it even threatens the safe operation of space station. An SPE predicting method which is based on GM(1, 1) and interval estimation was proposed. Firstly, the SPE flux levels sequence which consists of the flux data from 1976 to 2010 were preprocessed, a normal SPE flux levels sequence and an extreme SPE flux levels sequence were established according to time occurrence. Then combined with GM(1, 1) and grey interval estimation, a new forecasting method was built up. Integrated with the active adjustment coefficient that reflecting SPE flux level of cyclical fluctuation, long-term forecasting model of SPE flux level was set up. By fusing the results obtained from different SPE type, the mean value of flux levels was obtained, then SPE flux level range was given out in next year or several years. The annual average SPE data from 1976 to 2010 were selected, SPE flux mean intervals were predicted in multiple batches between 1996 to 1998, and 1999 to 2001. The results show that all the SPE flux levels are located in the prediction interval and the maximum deviation of prediction interval for many years is less than 26%. The experiment results also show that the optimum length of a single prediction is two or three years.
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页码：1134 / 1142
页数：8
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