[1] Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, Sch Architecture Civil & Environm Engn, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
[2] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Geotech Engn, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland
[3] WSL Inst Snow & Avalanche Res SLF, CH-7260 Davos, Switzerland
[4] Climate Change Extremes & Nat Hazards Alpine Reg R, CH-7260 Davos, Switzerland
[5] Univ Manchester, Dept Math, Manchester M13 9PL, England
[6] Univ Manchester, Manchester Ctr Nonlinear Dynam, Manchester M13 9PL, England