Analysis of the Influence of Driving Factors on Vegetation Changes Based on the Optimal-Parameter-Based Geographical Detector Model in the Yima Mining Area

The growth of vegetation directly maintains the ecological security of coal mining areas. It is of great significance to monitor the dynamic changes in vegetation in mining areas and study the driving factors of vegetation spatial division. This study focuses on the Yima mining area in Henan Province. Utilizing MODIS and multi-dimensional explanatory variable data, the Theil-Sen Median + Mann-Kendall trend analysis, variation index, Hurst index, and optimal-parameter-based geographical detector model (OPGD) are employed to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and future trends in the EVI (enhanced vegetation index) from 2000 to 2020. This study further investigates the underlying factors that contribute to the spatial variation in vegetation. The results indicate the following: (1) During the period studied, the Yima mining area was primarily characterized by a moderate-to-low vegetation cover. The area exhibited significant spatial variation, with a notable pattern of "western improvement and eastern degradation". This pattern indicated that the areas that experienced improvement greatly outnumbered the areas that underwent degradation. Moreover, there was an inclination towards a deterioration in vegetation in the future. (2) Based on the optimal parameter geographic detector, it was found that 2 km was the optimal spatial scale for the analysis of the driving factors of vegetation change in this area. The optimal parameter combination was determined by employing five spatial data discretization methods and selecting an interval classification range of 5-10. This approach effectively addresses the subjective bias in spatial scales and data discretization, leading to enhanced accuracy in vegetation change analysis and the identification of its driving factors. (3) The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation is influenced by various factors, such as topography, socio-economic conditions, climate, etc. Among these factors, population density and mean annual temperature were the primary driving forces in the study area, with Q > 0.29 and elevation being the strongest explanatory factor (Q = 0.326). The interaction between temperature and night light was the most powerful explanation (Q = 0.541), and the average Q value of the interaction between the average annual temperature and other driving factors was 0.478, which was the strongest cofactor among the interactions. The interactions between any two factors enhanced their impact on the vegetation's spatial changes, and each driving factor had its suitable range for affecting vegetative growth within this region. This research provides scientific support for conserving vegetation and restoring the ecological system.