China's carbon emissions prediction model based on support vector regression

被引:10
作者
Song, Jie-Kun [1 ]
机构
[1] School of Economics and Management in China University of Petroleum
来源
Zhongguo Shiyou Daxue Xuebao (Ziran Kexue Ban)/Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Natural Science) | 2012年 / 36卷 / 01期
关键词
Carbon emissions; Prediction model; Support vector regression;
D O I
10.3969/j.issn.1673-5005.2012.01.033
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
Six influnce factors including population, urbanization rate, per capita GDP, added value proportion of service industry, per GDP energy consumption and coal consumption ratio were seleted as independent variables, and a model based on support vector regression (SVR) was established for predicting carbon emissions of China. Using the data of carbon emissions and influence factors from the year 1980 to 2009 as samples, the SVR model with good learning and generalization ability was established through training and testing. According to the 12th five-year program, prediction values of influence facors under different situations were set, and the carbon emissions of China from the year 2010 to 2015 were predicted. The results show that China can appropriately reduce GDP growth speed and constantly optimize energy structure so as to achieve carbon reduction target efficiently.
引用
收藏
页码:182 / 187
页数:5
相关论文
共 14 条
  • [1] Nie R., Zhang T., Wang D., The scenario analysis on energy consumption and carbon emissions based on environmental loads model, Journal of Natural Resources, 25, 9, pp. 1557-1564, (2010)
  • [2] (2008)
  • [3] Zhu Q., Peng X.-Z., Lu Z.-M., Et al., Analysis model and empirical study of impacts from population and consumption on carbon emissions, China Population, Resources and Environment, 20, 2, pp. 98-102, (2010)
  • [4] Wang H.-J., Energy consumption and prediction of greenhouse gas emission in China, Shanghai Environmental Sciences, 18, 2, pp. 67-69, (1999)
  • [5] Chen W.-Y., Gao P.-F., He J.-K., Impact of carbon mitigation on China's energy system using China MARKAL-MACRO model, Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 44, 3, pp. 342-346, (2004)
  • [6] Wang C., Chen J.-N., Zou J., Impact assessment of CO <sub>2</sub> mitigation on China economy based on a CGE model, Journal of Tsinghua University (Science and Technology), 45, 12, pp. 1621-1624, (2005)
  • [7] (1999)
  • [8] (2004)
  • [9] York R., Rosa E.A., Dietz T., STIRPAT, IPAT and impact: Analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts, Ecological Economics, 46, pp. 351-365, (2003)
  • [10] (2004)