Forecasting the development of credit card marketing growth by using bass diffusion model

Nowadays, the risk of credit card and credit card debt has attracted much more attention on account of the recent financial crisis. People begin to concern the effect of the increasing credit debt scale of the credit card on the risk and the profitability of the credit card. On the other hand, more and more people use credit card as their preferred payment tool, which has largely contributed to the economic growth. At present, the global economy is gloomy, how to stimulate the credit card consumption has become a fair problem. This paper is meant to study these problems. From our former studies, we know that we can divide the development stage of credit card into three stages, gestation, rapid growth and saturation mature growth, and now the world is at the stage of the rapid development and grows exponentially. However, the maximum volume of credit card market and timing of peaking differ from country to country. And when will reach the peak? Therefore, in this paper, we use Bass Model, which is used to predict the sales peak and the timing of the peak of new product, to testify and figure up the peak magnitude of credit card market. From our study, we can conclude that there is a peak for the development of the credit card. The result also verified the three phrase development path of the credit card. After rapid development stage, the development of the credit card will step into mature stage. The increase speed runs slowly and steadily. Also the result verified that now the development of credit card in the world is at the stage of the rapid development and grows exponentially What's more, the peak sale of credit card of different country is diverse. China has the largest credit card potential magnitude.