Longitudinal instant probability distribution of wind farm output power

被引：7

作者：

Lü, Xiaolu ^{[1
]}

Liang, Jun ^{[1
]}

Yun, Zhihao ^{[1
]}

Ma, Qingfa ^{[1
]}

Wang, Hongtao ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Feng ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control, Ministry of Education, Shandong University

来源：

Dianli Zidonghua Shebei/Electric Power Automation Equipment | 2014年 / 34卷 / 05期

关键词：

Fluctuation; Function fitting; Longitudinal time; Pre-evaluation; Probabilistic distribution; Wind farms; Wind power;

D O I：

10.3969/j.issn.1006-6047.2014.05.006

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

A method of longitudinal time sequence analysis is proposed for studying the fluctuation of wind power output. The wind power outputs of the same instant for 365 or more days are analyzed based on the actual historic data and the probability distributions of wind power output for 96 different instants are thus obtained. The probabilistic characteristics of wind power output are piecewise expressed by function fitting, based on which the wind power output prediction is pre-evaluated. Case analysis shows that, the piecewise functions of probability distribution for different instants are suitable for the wind power output prediction based on the data of different years and has better effect of pre -evaluation based on the predictions of different confidence levels, which further illustrates that the characteristic of longitudinal instant probability distribution is the inherent property of wind power output.

引用

页码：40 / 45

页数：5

共 19 条

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