Nonlinear causality between energy consumption and economic growth by timescale

被引：0

作者：

Kim, Donggeun ^{[1
]}

Park, Young-Joon ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Economics, Ajou University, Worldcup-ro 206, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon,16499, Korea, Republic of

来源：

Energy Strategy Reviews | 2022年 / 44卷

关键词：

This work was supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2021S1A5C2A02087244).We calculate the absolute values of yearly growth rate changes as a volatility proxy using the frequency band; and then compute the volatility spillover indexes. Table 8 presents the results of the net pairwise spillovers between EC and EG by frequency band. As for the high frequency; we observe short-run volatility spillover from EG to EC; with a net pairwise volatility spillover index of 5.13. This supports a nonlinear causal relationship in the short run. Similarly; it shows a relatively strong medium-run volatility spillover from EG to EC; with a net pairwise volatility spillover index of 14.67; which also supports the nonlinear causal relationship in the medium run. Finally; considering the small value of the net pairwise spillover index of 1.30; it presents a weak long-run volatility spillover from EG to EC. In the long run; even though there is a weak volatility transmission from EG to EC; a nonlinear causal relationship cannot be manifested significantly. Overall; our results on volatility spillovers conform to the nonlinear causal relationship; and volatility transmissions uncover a plausible source of the nonlinear linkage between EC and EG.Under these circumstances; an empirical study of the direction of causation between EC and EG has important implications for policymakers. Our nonlinear Granger causality tests show different implications for short-run GDP fluctuations; medium-run business cycles; and long-run economic growth. A nonlinear causal relationship exists from EG to EC in the short and medium runs. Causality results in the short and medium runs imply that reducing EC does not hinder EG. From the perspective of a short-term policy horizon; it is necessary to establish feasible action plans to immediately reduce pollutant emissions due to EC. In the medium run; EC does not affect economic activities; whereas business cycles do affect EC. Therefore; renewable energy use measures should be devised for a medium-run policy horizon of less than eight years. However; the absence of a nonlinear causal relationship between EC and EG in the long run; which supports the neutrality hypothesis; indicates that a relatively wider scope exists for more stringent energy conservation measures without severe negative impacts on EG. Thus; the government can pursue recent efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by reducing EC without negative side effects. The fact that our findings support the neutrality hypothesis suggests that EG can be achieved concurrently with a decrease in EC. Thus; implementing energy conservation policies that reduce EC to limit CO2 emissions would not significantly impact Korea's EG;

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