Research on risk modeling and forecasting method of transmission line defects

被引：0
|
作者：
Zeng Y. [1 ]
Wang X. [1 ]
Peng X. [1 ]
Huang J. [1 ]
Jian S. [1 ]
Lu D. [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou
来源：
Zeng, Yongbin (841632852@qq.com) | 1600年 / Power System Protection and Control Press卷 / 48期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
Correlation analysis; Defect risk value; Influencing factor; Support vector machine; Transmission line;
D O I：
10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.190935
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The forecasting and evaluation of the development of transmission line defects has guiding significance for arranging maintenance and formulating operation and maintenance strategies. Considering the current fuzzy and single evaluation indicators of the overall defect status of transmission lines, and the inconsistent development of transmission line defects in different internal and external environments, a transmission line defect risk modeling and prediction method is proposed. The method first subdivides the transmission line into several parts according to the characteristics of the transmission line itself; then quantifies the defect severity of each part of the transmission line. The defect risk value of the whole transmission line is defined by a membership degree analysis based on the defect history data of the transmission line. Finally, the effects of various random factors on the risk value of each component of the line are studied. The support vector machine-based transmission line defect risk value prediction model is established and the defect risk value in the future time of the line is predicted. The feasibility of the method for predicting the risk value of transmission line defects is proved by an example. © 2020, Power System Protection and Control Press. All right reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：91 / 98
页数：7
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