Land covers associated with forest expansion hot spots in the Nepal Himalaya

Many regions of the Himalaya are experiencing forest expansion, signifying a widespread forest transition across this fragile mountain system. In the Nepal Himalaya, forest expansion is increasingly attributed to the narrative of cropland abandonment driven by rural outmigration. Understanding forest change dynamics as consequences of land use changes is critical in the context of rural mountain societies such as Nepal, which exhibit complex interactions between forest, agriculture, and livelihoods. We analysed forest gain in Nepal from 2000-2019 to inquire where and when forests have expanded and what land covers transitioned into forests. We integrated spatiotemporal analysis of national land cover maps and photointerpretation of very high resolution (VHR) imagery to improve analytical estimates. The Middle Mountain physiographic region experienced the strongest hot spots of forest gains relative to the high mountains or lowlands. Visual interpretation of VHR showed that 68.8% of forest gains since 2000 occurred on shrubland, and 26.5% on cropland. The dominance of shrubland-forest transitions implied that shrubland is an intermediate stage in a multi-decadal succession process, or a semi-permanent state such as arrested succession. Notably however, we also detected cropland-forest transitions occurring as fast as 6-10 years, indicating the potential for rapid forest succession if biophysical conditions permit. Thus, variations in land cover transitions to forests in the hills implicated multiple pathways of forest regeneration, reflecting a variety of spatiotemporally explicit drivers. Our results differ from previous studies because VHR image analysis accounted for land cover classification errors and improved land cover quantification. Further research on spatially explicit mechanisms and drivers of forest gain are needed to understand the synergies of forest, agriculture, and livelihoods to inform land use land cover policies that could be leveraged to enhance rural mountain livelihoods.