A Stochastic Approach to the Power Requirements of the Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure: The Case of Spain

Battery electric vehicles represent a technological pathway for reducing carbon emissions in personal road transport. However, for the widespread adoption of this type of vehicle, the user experience should be similar to that of combustion engine vehicles. To achieve this objective, a robust and reliable public charging infrastructure is essential. In Spain, the electric recharging infrastructure is growing quickly in metropolitan areas but much more slowly on roads and highways. The upcoming charging stations must be located along high-volume traffic corridors and in proximity to the Trans-European Transport Network. The main contribution of this research is to offer a method for examining the essential electricity infrastructure investments required in scenarios involving substantial electric vehicle adoption. The methodology includes a sensitivity analysis of fleet composition and market share, recharging user behavior, charging station density, and vehicle efficiency improvements. To this end, the authors have developed a simplified probabilistic model, addressing the effect of the involved parameters through a comprehensive scenario analysis. The results show that the actual number of high-capacity charging plugs on Spanish roads is significantly lower than the European regulation requirements for the year 2030 considering an electric vehicle market share according to the Spanish Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030 objectives and it is far from the necessary infrastructure to cover the expected demand according to the traffic flow. Under these circumstances, the charging peak power demand reaches over 7.4% of the current Spanish total power demand for an electric vehicle fleet, which corresponds to only 12% of the total.