Temporal instability analysis of factors affecting injury severities of elderly drivers

被引：0
|
作者：
Pan, Yi-Yong [1 ]
Wu, Jing-Ting [1 ]
Miao, Xuan-Ye [1 ]
机构：
[1] College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing
来源：
Jilin Daxue Xuebao (Gongxueban)/Journal of Jilin University (Engineering and Technology Edition) | 2024年 / 54卷 / 10期
关键词：
crash injury severity; elderly drivers; random parameter Logit with heterogeneity in means and variances; temporal instability; traffic engineering;
D O I：
10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20221574
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
In order to explore the influence of temporal instability on crash injury severities，a random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances was constructed to analyze the heterogeneity of elderly driver injury severities. The 2015 to 2017 traffic crash data in a state of the United States was used for the analysis. 19 influencing factors were selected based on the characteristics of elderly，vehicle，road，road environment，and built environment. The average marginal effect was used to reflect the effect of each factor on the crash injury severities. The log likelihood ratio was used to test the global and local temporal instability of the influencing factors of crash injury severities. The results show that there is significant temporal instability in the influencing factors of elderly driver injury severities. The influence of three factors on the injury severities，namely，escape after collision，rural area and dry road surface environment，changes positively and negatively with years. In the built environment characteristics，the influence of crash occurring in commercial district on the serious injury severities changes positively and negatively with years. There is temporal instability in the heterogeneity of influencing factors of elderly driver injury severities. The random parameters are related to years and the influencing factors of their mean and variance are significantly different in years. © 2024 Editorial Board of Jilin University. All rights reserved.
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页码：2819 / 2826
页数：7
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