Estimating Global Gross Primary Production Using an Improved MODIS Leaf Area Index Dataset

Remote sensing and process-coupled ecological models are widely used for the simulation of GPP, which plays a key role in estimating and monitoring terrestrial ecosystem productivity. However, most such models do not differentiate the C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathways and neglect the effect of nitrogen content on Vmax and Jmax, leading to considerable bias in the estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP). Here, we developed a model driven by the leaf area index, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration to estimate global GPP with a spatial resolution of 0.1 degrees and a temporal interval of 1 day from 2000 to 2022. We validated our model with ground-based GPP measurements at 128 flux tower sites, which yielded an accuracy of 72.3%. We found that the global GPP ranged from 116.4 PgCyear-1 to 133.94 PgCyear-1 from 2000 to 2022, with an average of 125.93 PgCyear-1. We also found that the global GPP showed an increasing trend of 0.548 PgCyear-1 during the study period. Further analyses using the structure equation model showed that atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature were the main drivers of the global GPP changes, total associations of 0.853 and 0.75, respectively, while precipitation represented a minor but negative contribution to global GPP.