Development Scenarios and Environmental Benefits Analysis of Future Power Generation Industry Under Two Modes in China

被引：5

作者：

Liu C.-J. ^{[1
]}

Lü J.-Y. ^{[1
]}

Zhao W.-C. ^{[1
]}

Xu Q. ^{[1
]}

Jin Y.-J. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Hebei Key Laboratory of Power Plant Flue Gas Multi-Pollutants Control, Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding

来源：

Huanjing Kexue/Environmental Science | 2022年 / 43卷 / 07期

关键词：

Carbon neutralization; Carbon peak; Environmental benefits; Renewable energy power generation; Thermal power generation;

D O I：

10.13227/j.hjkx.202110144

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

In order to study the impact of the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode on future power generation and the environment in China, a Verhulst gray model was established to predict the development of the power generation industry from 2021 to 2060 under the non-"carbon peak and neutrality" mode. In addition, based on the "China 2030 Energy and Power Development Planning Research and 2060 Outlook Report, " the development of the power generation industry from 2021 to 2060 under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode was obtained, and the development scenarios of the future power generation industry in China under two models were compared and studied. The emission factors and emission reduction factors of CO2, SO2, NOx, PM, PM10, and PM2.5 were constructed through the conservation of elements and the generating performance standard, and then four environmental benefits A1-A4 were defined. The results showed that the installed capacity of thermal power will reach the carbon peak in 2026 under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode. To achieve the carbon neutralization, the installed capacity of thermal power will be reduced by an average of 28 million kilowatts per year after 2026, and the installed capacity of renewable energy generated is required to increase by 154 million kilowatts per year after 2020. Compared with that in the non-"carbon peak and neutrality" mode, the installed capacity of thermal power generation will be greatly reduced, and the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation will be greatly increased under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode, resulting in huge A1 and A2 environmental benefits. In the next four decades, the cumulative emission reductions in CO2, SO2, NOx, PM, PM10, and PM2.5 thermal power generation A1 are predicted to be 6.64×1010 tons, 1.54×107 tons, 1.55×107 tons, 3.18×106 tons, 1.71×106tons, and 2.23×105 tons, respectively. The cumulative emission reductions of renewable energy power generation A2 will be 5.77×1010 tons, 1.64×107 tons, 1.42×107 tons, 2.86×106 tons, 1.54×106 tons, and 2×105 t tons, respectively. Under the "carbon peak and neutrality" mode, compared with those from coal-fired power generation, the environmental benefits A3 and A4 produced by the relative cleanliness of renewable energy and nuclear power indicated that the cumulative emission reductions (A3+A4) in clean energy power generation of CO2, SO2, NOx, PM, PM10, and PM2.5 in the next four decades will be 3.014×1011 tons, 7.292×107 tons, 7.119×107 tons, 1.454×107 tons, 7.827×106tons, and 1.018×106 tons, respectively. © 2022, Science Press. All right reserved.

引用

页码：3375 / 3385

页数：10

共 29 条

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